The British government assess that Brexit will leave the UK in a worse economic situation in the three scenarios – a comprehensive free trade agreement, access to the single market or no deal at all. This is clear from an analysis of government use of the economic impact of divorce with the EU. The document will be presented this week only to cabinet ministers.
According to the text, the incomes will shrink by 8% in the absence of a deal, 5% in a free trade agreement and 2% in the so-called “Soft Brexit”, which provides for remaining in the single market for a period of 15 years.
The Prime Minister Teresa May and her government declined to comment on the data, but the report does not include the preferred option for a “deep and special” partnership deal with the EU.
The assessment shows that most seriously will be affected the chemical, textile, food, beverage, automotive and retail sectors. It also expects absolutely every region in the country to be negatively affected by Brexit, and this will apply with great force to the northeastern parts, as well as Northern Ireland and Western Midlands.
The announcement for the new report comes after London’s official representative for Brexit David Davis refused to provide estimates of the impact of divorce with the EU on 58 sectors of the economy at the request of parliament on the grounds that such analyzes were not prepared. According to Labor Party opposition MP Stephen Gethins, the negative predictions are the reason the government refuses to publish “any serious Brexit analyzes”.
A government spokesman said broad analyzes were being prepared to help the negotiation process, but ministers themselves were not allowed to disclose information that could indicate what the country’s position in the talks with the EU is.